December 2023 (1) – The Art of Business and the Science of Predicting Monsoons.

There are several problem areas and grand mathematical modelling inconsistencies that continue to challenge scientists who track and predict the monsoons, especially the ones that develop in and around the Indian peninsula.

Looked at closely, there seems to be a lot of similarities between these problems and challenges with those that entrepreneurial leaders face when they finely execute the art of a tight rope walk as they attempt to excel in profitably delivering customer needs.

Check out the following.

Problem Areas in Predicting Monsoons	The Entrepreneur’s Problem Areas
Monsoon Weather and Climate Prediction parameters are complexly interlinked.  Monsoon weather is traditionally a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation associated with annual latitudinal oscillation of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) between some observable limits. The parameters governing such an oscillation have complex inter-linkages.	Delivering value to a market segment is characterized by complex supply chain and constantly evolving linkages.  Customer satisfaction traditionally needed a simple and periodic analysis of market needs and designing an efficient route to deliver those needs. Now such analysis and design need to factor real-time predictions on changing customer preferences (over short time-spans /seasons), the volatility and uncertainty of capabilities of supply-side partners as well as regulations.
Non-seasonal and abnormal Heat / Cold Waves.  Heat waves and cold waves are anomalous extreme weather phenomena that result in severe adverse impacts on agriculture, human health, and industrial production. Most models do not adequately capture the spatial variability of heat waves and cold waves in terms of intensity and frequency.	Anomalies in market efficiencies.  All known theories of the behavior of the markets do not adequately capture the timing or profit opportunities or simply miss the opportunity itself. These often result in over-pricing or under-valuation of the core asset and adversely impacts the business rationale for the market.
Cyclones during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons can be good and bad.  Pre-monsoon cyclones can facilitate the onset of the monsoon by acting as a precursor. They generate favourable atmospheric conditions, such as increased moisture and convergence, which can aid in the build-up of monsoonal flow. Pre-monsoon cyclones can also have drawbacks – they can draw away moisture and destabilize the atmospheric conditions required for monsoon onset; those that make landfall can disrupt the normal progression of monsoon systems, leading to irregular rainfall patterns and delays in the monsoon's advancement over land. Post-monsoon cyclones are abnormalities where the retreating monsoons which normally push them to Middle East make them turn around the Indian peninsula because of suspected climatic change impacts.	Pre-launch and Post-Launch activities can make a difference.  A good pre-launch effort involves validating business ideas, making key financial projections and decisions, completing all necessary legal formalities, and preparing to deliver an exceptional customer experience.  Planned and executed well these can be the stepping stones for success. But doing these using expectations using wrong benchmarks can be disastrous.  Post-launch efforts focusing on collection and analysis of feedback from all categories of stakeholders and getting team to respond flexibly with value-added improvements will be essential. Done with agility these can ensure brand reinforcement and market penetration. Done inconsistently, they will fast-track the road to failure.
Getting better skills for smaller spatial and smaller temporal scales.  Prediction of monsoon is done in different spatial and temporal scales. It varies from country as a whole to district wise in spatial scales and from a seasonal forecast to now-cast in temporal scale. Greater accuracy of short range or smaller spatial and temporal forecasts can help with better planning agricultural activities, disaster management, town planning.	Skills enhancement for succeeding in small but heterogeneous markets.  Heterogeneous markets, especially small ones, offer distinctive and wholesome opportunities, if only they can be correctly identified and characterized for the needs and purchase decisions of the customers which can fluctuate between specific locations and also at different points of time during the year.
Development of applications by using weather and climate forecasts.  The benefits that could accrue in diverse applications such as those in air traffic, severe flood alerts, agriculture, safe operations of utility companies and in planning space and military initiatives are all dependent on the data acquisition, analytics and inferential skills of those that design and run the weather prediction models..	Development of new value-propositions or enhanced value-propositions.  The challenges of creating value for a diverse segment of end-users for the enterprise can best be addressed by innovations driven by continuous review of the core propositions using both feedback and feed-forward market data.