There are several problem areas and grand mathematical modelling inconsistencies that continue to challenge scientists who track and predict the monsoons, especially the ones that develop in and around the Indian peninsula.
Looked at closely, there seems
to be a lot of similarities between these problems and challenges with those
that entrepreneurial leaders face when they finely execute the art of a tight
rope walk as they attempt to excel in profitably delivering customer needs.
Check out the following.
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Problem Areas in
Predicting Monsoons |
The Entrepreneur’s
Problem Areas |
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Monsoon
Weather and Climate Prediction parameters are complexly interlinked. Monsoon weather is traditionally
a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in
precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in atmospheric
circulation and precipitation associated with annual latitudinal oscillation
of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) between some observable limits.
The parameters governing such an oscillation have complex inter-linkages. |
Delivering
value to a market segment is characterized by complex supply chain and
constantly evolving linkages. Customer satisfaction
traditionally needed a simple and periodic analysis of market needs and
designing an efficient route to deliver those needs. Now such analysis and
design need to factor real-time predictions on changing customer preferences
(over short time-spans /seasons), the volatility and uncertainty of
capabilities of supply-side partners as well as regulations. |
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Non-seasonal
and abnormal Heat / Cold Waves. Heat waves and cold
waves are anomalous extreme weather phenomena that result in severe adverse impacts
on agriculture, human health, and industrial production. Most models do not
adequately capture the spatial variability of heat waves and cold waves in
terms of intensity and frequency. |
Anomalies
in market efficiencies. All known theories of
the behavior of the markets do not adequately capture the timing or profit
opportunities or simply miss the opportunity itself. These often result in
over-pricing or under-valuation of the core asset and adversely impacts the
business rationale for the market. |
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Cyclones
during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons can be good and bad. Pre-monsoon cyclones
can facilitate the onset of the monsoon by acting as a precursor. They
generate favourable atmospheric conditions, such as increased moisture and
convergence, which can aid in the build-up of monsoonal flow. Pre-monsoon cyclones
can also have drawbacks – they can draw away moisture and destabilize the
atmospheric conditions required for monsoon onset; those that make landfall
can disrupt the normal progression of monsoon systems, leading to irregular
rainfall patterns and delays in the monsoon's advancement over land. Post-monsoon cyclones
are abnormalities where the retreating monsoons which normally push them to
Middle East make them turn around the Indian peninsula because of suspected
climatic change impacts. |
Pre-launch
and Post-Launch activities can make a difference. A good pre-launch effort
involves validating business ideas, making key financial projections and
decisions, completing all necessary legal formalities, and preparing to
deliver an exceptional customer experience. Planned and executed well these can be the
stepping stones for success. But doing these using expectations using wrong
benchmarks can be disastrous. Post-launch efforts
focusing on collection and analysis of feedback from all categories of
stakeholders and getting team to respond flexibly with value-added
improvements will be essential. Done with agility these can ensure brand
reinforcement and market penetration. Done inconsistently, they will fast-track
the road to failure. |
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Getting
better skills for smaller spatial and smaller temporal scales. Prediction of monsoon
is done in different spatial and temporal scales. It varies from country as a
whole to district wise in spatial
scales and from a seasonal forecast to now-cast in temporal scale. Greater accuracy of short range or smaller
spatial and temporal forecasts can help with better planning agricultural
activities, disaster management, town planning. |
Skills
enhancement for succeeding in small but heterogeneous markets. Heterogeneous
markets, especially small ones, offer distinctive and wholesome
opportunities, if only they can be correctly identified and characterized for
the needs and purchase decisions of the customers which can fluctuate between
specific locations and also at different points of time during the year. |
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Development
of applications by using weather and climate forecasts. The benefits that
could accrue in diverse applications such as those in air traffic, severe flood
alerts, agriculture, safe operations of utility companies and in planning
space and military initiatives are all dependent on the data acquisition,
analytics and inferential skills of those that design and run the weather
prediction models.. |
Development
of new value-propositions or enhanced value-propositions. The challenges of
creating value for a diverse segment of end-users for the enterprise can best
be addressed by innovations driven by continuous review of the core
propositions using both feedback and feed-forward market data. |